|
The 2004 Atlantic hurricane season was the costliest Atlantic hurricane season on record until surpassed by the following year. More than half of the 16 tropical cyclones brushed or struck the United States. The season officially began on June 1, and ended on November 30. Due to a Modoki El Niño – a rare type of El Niño in which unfavorable conditions are produced over the eastern Pacific instead of the Atlantic basin due to warmer sea surface temperatures farther west along the equatorial Pacific – activity was above average. The first storm, Alex, developed offshore of the Southeastern United States on July 31. It brushed the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic, causing one death and $7.5 million (2004 USD) in damage. Several storms caused only minor damage, including tropical storms Bonnie, Earl, Hermine, and Matthew. In addition, hurricanes Danielle, Karl, and Lisa, Tropical Depression Ten, Subtropical Storm Nicole and Tropical Storm Otto had no effect on land while tropical cyclones. Hurricane Charley made landfall in Florida as a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS), causing $15.1 billion in damage in the United States alone. Later in August, Hurricane Frances struck the Bahamas and Florida, causing at least 49 deaths and $9.5 billion in damage. The most intense storm, and the one that caused the most damage, was Hurricane Ivan. It was a Category 5 hurricane that devastated multiple countries adjacent to the Caribbean Sea, before entering the Gulf of Mexico and causing catastrophic destruction on the Gulf Coast of the United States, especially Alabama and Florida. Throughout the countries it passed through, Ivan left 129 fatalities and over $23.33 billion in damage. The most significant tropical cyclone in terms of deaths was Hurricane Jeanne. In Haiti, torrential rainfall in the mountainous areas resulted in mudslides and severe flooding, causing at least 3,006 fatalities. Jeanne also struck Florida, inflicting extensive destruction. Overall, the storm caused at least $8.1 billion in damage and 3,042 deaths. Collectively, the storms of this season caused at least 3,270 deaths and about $57.37 billion in damage, making it the costliest Atlantic hurricane season at the time, until the following season. With six hurricanes reaching at least Category 3 intensity, 2004 also had the most major hurricanes since 1996. However, that record would also be surpassed in 2005, with seven major hurricanes that year. In the spring of 2005, four names were retired: Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne. This tied the then-record most names retired with 1955 and 1995, while five were retired in 2005. == Seasonal forecasts == Since 1984, forecasts of hurricane activity have been issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane expert Dr. William M. Gray and his associates at Colorado State University (CSU), and separately by forecasters with the U.S. Government's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). According to CSU, the average season between 1950 and 2000 had 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes, which are Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 12.1 named storms, of which 6.4 reach hurricane strength and 2.7 become major hurricanes. CSU released its first prediction on December 5, 2003, which projected an above average season, with 13 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. This forecast was adjusted upward slightly on April 2. On May 17, prior to the start of the season, NOAA forecasters predicted a 50% probability of activity above the normal range, with twelve to fifteen tropical storms, six to eight of those becoming hurricanes, and two to four those hurricanes reaching major intensity. Dr. Gray released a prediction on May 28 that was similar, with 14 named storms, eight reaching hurricane strength, and three becoming major hurricanes. After the season began, Dr. Gray announced he had revised his predictions slightly downwards on August 6, citing mild El Niño conditions. His new forecast was thirteen named storms, seven hurricanes, and three reaching major hurricane intensity. On August 10, NOAA released an updated prediction as well, with a 90% probability of above-to-near normal activity, but the same number of storms forecast. CSU issued another forecast on September 3, indicating sixteen tropical storms, eight hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. The season ended up with sixteen tropical depressions, fifteen named storms, nine hurricanes, and six major hurricanes, which matched CSU's final prediction on October 1. 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「2004 Atlantic hurricane season」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
|